Weakness of Holperin opponent stands out

With what we've seen so far, the GOP seems to be unable to field candidates with the same qualifications and political experience as the Dems who have already announced.

With State Assembly Dems lining up against 3 different GOP recall candidates, the tea party activists and county board supervisors that have so far announced they will run against recall-eligible Dems should have a much harder time turning seats (which is not to say it will be easy for Dems).

One candidate who jumps out as especially bad in these races is Northwoods Patriots tea-party group leader Kim Simac. Simac is a children's book author and mother of nine who helped to organize the recall efforts against Senator Jim Holperin. Her husband Butch owns Great Northern Water, a company that provides plumbing and water services and takes in between $500,000 and $1m a year, according to tax documents. While she may have the money, she doesn't appear to have the campaign experience - she's still got no website, 5 days after announcing, and she's never run for office in the past.

The real worry for her should be message - while there are many in Wisconsin who are angry that the 14 Democratic Senators left the state for a prolonged period, railing against this action is not likely to win the election for an extremist like Simac with no elected experience. These recall elections will be a referendum on Scott Walker and his action against public employees and collective bargaining, not a debate on whether or not the senators should have fled to Illinois. In that environment, I don't see any possible message Simac might try to convey really breaking through to an electorate.

Below, see some examples of Kimac in the public spotlight in recent years.

Discussing home-schooling and the separation of church and state:

Featured on Glenn Beck:

Speaking in Madison on the day of the tea-party rally:

Edit: Illusory Tenant has a post on Simac up at his (her?) informative blog.

Hopper campaign finance update

Randy Hopper is not sitting nearly as pretty as his colleague on the Committee for Joint Finance, Senator Darling (see last post). Though it's not fair to compare his district to that of Alberta Darling, who represents perhaps the most wealthy Senate district in the state, the Committee to Recall Hopper is also doing far better than its north-suburban partner.

Hopper has raised $130,000 in 2011, with only $40,000 of that coming in the latest reporting period.

Of that $130k on the year, and of the $40k in this period, there are two very big donations. In this period, we saw Jere Fabick give $20,000 to Hopper's campaign. He's the owner of  FABCO Equipment of Madison, which owns the license for Caterpillar equipment sales in Wisconsin and the UP. Last period saw Ralph Stayer of Fond du Lac donate $15,000. Stayer is the founder of Johnsonville Sausage. These gifts and another 9 donations larger than $1,000 in size account for 36% of Hopper's total.

So far, Hopper's biggest expense has actually been to keep his Campaign Manager, DC import Jeff Harvey, in hotel rooms up and down the Fox Valley. He's spent nearly $5,000 on that so far. The rest is scattered around, paying for staff salaries, office supplies, and nothing else interesting.

Meanwhile, the Committee to Recall Hopper has raised almost $70k on the year, but has spent almost $50k of that. It should be interesting to see how Jessica King can do in her fundraising effort.

Darling campaign finance update

The Government Accountability Board (GAB) handles fundraising for these recalls in an interesting way - they required fundraising reports from earlier in the year to be turned in just last week, and required reporting from the last month up to April 18 to be handed in today. This gives us a rapid fire glimpse into how these campaigns are handling the fundraising challenges

Alberta Darling continues her fundraising rampage, raising more than $230,000 in the latest period. She's also spent nearly $190,000 so far. Of that, $65,000 has been spent on radio, $75,000 on direct mail, upwards of $20,000 on campaign consultants, $15,000 on polling, and she's not skimping on the hors d'oeuvres at her fundraisers, spending thousands of dollars on a few events.

Notable donations:

• $7,000 from Albert Nicholas of Nicholas Funds
• $2,500 from Donald Taylor of Waukesha State Bank
• $2,500 from Ted Kellner of Fiduciary Management, and $20,000 from his conduit
• $1,000 from Craig Leipold, Management of the NHL's Minnesota Wild
• A second personal gift of $10,000 from Daniel McKeithan of Tamarack Petroleum
• $20,000 for him on the year.

Rep. Sandy Pasch, good luck to you!

4/28: A helpful write up from the Journal-Sentinel is here.

Outlook: Senator Randy Hopper

Of all five Republican State Senators who have had recall signatures filed against them so far, Senator Randy Hopper (R-Fond du Lac) is seen by some as the most vulnerable. His opponent will be Jessica King, a long-time city council member, deputy mayor, and attorney from Oshkosh. She lost the seat to Sen. Hopper in 2008 by a few hundred votes.

Hopper has had an undistinguished first term in office, but seems to have developed a good record of keeping in contact with constituents. He also has been chosen to serve as one of the Republican representatives to the Legislature's Joint Finance Committee, a real achievement for a senator with only two years experience. At one point, it's possible he may have been looked at as a candidate for future leadership.

That was before the details of an affair he had with 25-year-old GOP operative Valerie Cass became public, including accusations that he had helped place her in a job with the Walker administration. It was also before his estranged wife Alysia Hopper signed his recall petition and spoke out against him publicly, explaining that he lived in Madison, and not in Fond du Lac. It was before he directed constituents to a phone sex hotline, and before he told a room full of constituents at a listening session that he would not take questions or comment on their remarks, eliciting significant anger.

Hopper posing non-ironically with AFSCME supporters in 2008.

It's a lot for any opposition candidate to work with. To his benefit, it sounds like Hopper knows what he's up against; he's retained national talent to staff his campaign and was reportedly one of the beneficiaries of a major Washington fundraiser held in March to begin building a firewall against recall efforts.

After the jump, let's take a look at how Hopper was elected in 2008.